Trump’s Trade Tinder: Swiping Left on Canada, Right on Russia
The Donald Doctrine: Make Russia Great Again?
Canada buys 700 times more from the US than Russia does.
So why are we getting treated so poorly?
President Donald Trump's recent remarks about normalizing trade relations with Russia invite a closer look at the economic realities underpinning U.S. trade with both Russia and Canada. While the idea of expanding trade with Russia might seem appealing in theory, the data paints a starkly different picture when compared to the deeply entrenched and multifaceted trade relationship the U.S. shares with Canada.
U.S.–Russia Trade: A Minor Player
In 2023, the total value of goods traded between the U.S. and Russia amounted to approximately $5.17 billion, with U.S. exports at $599.6 million and imports at $4.57 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.97 billion. By 2024, this trade volume further declined to $3.5 billion, with exports decreasing to $526.1 million and imports to $3.0 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $2.5 billion.
The primary U.S. exports to Russia include pharmaceuticals, industrial machinery, and specialized chemicals, while imports predominantly consist of crude oil, metals, and fertilizers. However, ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions have significantly curtailed this trade relationship, making Russia a relatively minor trading partner for the U.S.
U.S.–Canada Trade: A Big Partnership
In stark contrast, the U.S. and Canada share one of the world's most extensive trading relationships. In 2023, the total trade in goods between the two countries was over $1 trillion, with U.S. exports at $396.5 billion and imports at $476.7 billion. Additionally, trade in services totaled an estimated $140.3 billion, with the U.S. exporting $86.0 billion and importing $54.3 billion, resulting in a services trade surplus of $31.7 billion.
Canada is the top destination for U.S. exports, including automobiles, machinery, and agricultural products, while the U.S. imports crude petroleum, cars, and natural gas from Canada. The two countries are also partners in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which facilitates trade and economic cooperation across North America.
Comparative Snapshot
Reality Check
While the prospect of enhancing trade with Russia might seem like an avenue for economic growth, the trivial trade volume and geopolitical challenges make it a less viable option. Conversely, Canada's established and expansive trade relationship with the U.S., underpinned by robust legal frameworks and mutual economic interests, continues to be a cornerstone of U.S. international trade. Efforts to strengthen this partnership are likely to yield more substantial and stable economic benefits.
Why Does He Gotta Be Like This?
Trump’s colder stance toward Canada isn’t about economics—it’s about ego, optics, and narrative. Canada is close, safe, and not perceived as a threat. Russia is dangerous, defiant, and therefore, in Trump’s eyes, worth courting. He praises adversaries to assert dominance and punishes allies to renegotiate terms.
It’s not strategy in the classical sense—it’s performance politics. And Canada, unfortunately, doesn’t make for a very exciting antagonist or grand gesture.
The Darker View
Trump often frames his international stances as part of a broader culture war narrative.
Canada is seen by many on the American right as a symbol of “woke globalism.” For Trump, criticizing Canada plays well with supporters who see themselves as victims of liberal internationalism.
Cozying up to Russia plays to the anti-establishment, anti-NATO base—those who resent the foreign policy elite and who believe that diplomacy with adversaries is preferable to endless wars.
Russia has become a kind of anti-globalist totem for parts of the populist right.
For some Trump supporters, praising Russia is a way of flipping the bird to the mainstream media, intelligence agencies, and the liberal foreign policy establishment—all of whom painted Trump-Russia ties as corrupt or treasonous.
His friendliness to Russia is as much about defying his critics as it is about Russia itself.
The Darkest View
This is the specter that’s haunted Trump since the Steele Dossier, the Helsinki summit, and the Mueller investigation. While no smoking gun emerged, the sheer weirdness of his deference to Vladimir Putin—especially on live TV—continues to raise eyebrows, even among his own party.
Helsinki, 2018: Trump stood beside Putin and publicly sided with him over U.S. intelligence agencies.
Pattern of praise: He regularly praises Putin’s intelligence, toughness, and leadership, often while disparaging NATO allies, including Canada, which he wants to ‘own’. There’s never any such talk with Russia.
Sanctions reversal attempts: Trump repeatedly tries to soften or remove sanctions on Russia—often in ways that baffle even his own advisers.
There’s no direct evidence of compromising material, and really, what could be so bad that Trump or his supporters would care, but his behavior has often looked like a man either beholden—or hopeful.
Personal Financial Fantasies
Trump sees every relationship as a potential business opportunity. Canada? Too regulated, too polite, too boring. But Russia? Now that looks like an untapped frontier to the mogul mind.
The Trump Tower Moscow deal was being quietly negotiated during the 2016 campaign, despite his public denials.
He never fully divested from his businesses, and his entanglements remain murky.
He might well believe that warming relations with Russia would open up post-presidency deals, oil investments, or trophy developments.
Canada offers no such fantasy. Its markets are already open. Its courts are not pliable. There’s no gold rush for oligarchs or backdoor hotel projects.
Psychological Projection and Machismo
There’s also the possibility that Trump is drawn to Putin for emotional and psychological reasons.
Putin represents the alpha strongman Trump has always wanted to be: feared, unbound by norms, ruling for decades.
Canada, by contrast, reflects everything Trump resents: soft power, progressive values, multiculturalism, and happy self-assurance.
So Trump lavishes praise on authoritarian adversaries while mocking democratic allies. It’s less about geopolitics than projection.
So—Does Russia Have Something on Trump?
We don’t know. But here's the darker truth: they don’t need to.
He already acts as if they do, whether from fear, fantasy, or future ambition.
And that might be worse.
Because if he’s not compromised—if this is all voluntary—then we’re watching not a puppet, but a volunteer.
Whether he's a Russian agent or not is not pertinent, as he acts like one. He just wants Canada out of the way, as does MAGA. Defend dairy/milk products exemption to the death, and NO WATER exports. Elbows up. God love Charlie Angus.
There's no mention of tariffs, especially those that Canada placed on US goods well before the current Trump administration. Some, such as on dairy-related products, are ridiculously exorbitant. While geography and the amount of cross-border product would prompt one to assume trade should be chummy between Canada and the US, Canada's tariff policy over the past decades proves otherwise, and is an underlying cause of Trump's approach on trade with your nation. Remedy that, and I'm confident the concerns you note quickly will resolve.