Trump's Tariffs and Trade Tantrums Aren't a Setback - They're a Setup for a Better Canada
A more independent, productive, and self-reliant Canada is not a crisis—it’s a plan
Trump’s Tariffs? Bring It On.
I’m not bitter. I don't feel bad, mad, or scared. Canada is about more than this transactional trade trash talk. We're better than this. We’ve been dealt worse hands by better men. And we've certainly faced bigger challenges.
So let’s get on with it. Together.
This isn’t a passion post. It’s a pragmatic take from someone who has spent a lifetime working in and studying finance, taxes, economics, and geopolitics. If Trump wants to disconnect from us with tariffs, let’s take it as the push we’ve long needed to rethink how we approach our work, our creativity, our economy, our government, and our place in the world.
We’ve been too comfortable relying on a single, often unpredictable trading partner. This is an opportunity to get back to work making, and growing the things we need to diversify, strengthen, and double down on what makes us Canada. Our capacity for effort is so much greater than we think. We can help ourselves. And if WE choose, we can compete—our resources, our talent, and our ingenuity make us a match for any challenge.
Canadian industry has always risen to the occasion. Even as a young country, we had enough that when the world needed us we could always step up and help. When Europe turned inward, we built our own markets. When the U.S. imposed tariffs before, we innovated around them. This is no different. We can look after ourselves and help.
Our goal is to be a prosperous country in a peaceful world. And we've proven again and again it's possible to move toward that goal.
A stronger, more self-reliant Canada isn’t a crisis. It's a plan for the future filled with opportunity and promise. It’s a long-overdue adjustment. And we’ll be better for it.
BY THE NUMBERS PERSPECTIVE
Let’s compare the impact of American Trade tariffs - an external factor - to Canada’s own labour productivity - something entirely in our control that speaks to our true potential.
Canada’s labour productivity rate is 17th in the world. If Canada were to elevate its labor productivity to match that of Germany in 11th place, the economic impact would be substantial. Labor productivity is typically measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked. According to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in 2022, Canada produced approximately $71.90 USD in GDP per hour, whereas Germany produced about $90.90 USD per hour.
If we got to work on our productivity through technology adoption, workforce skills, and industrial practices we have the capacity to increase our economy by over 25% if we were as productive internally as Germany. A real, achievable goal. If we were as productive as the US in tenth place in the world, our economy would be over a third larger. An almost unimaginable economic transformation, but a perfectly reasonable goal. Even an increase in productivity to bring us up to our closest comparable country - Italy - would create an economic boom more than twice the impact of the projected impact of Trump’s tariffs.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce Canada's GDP by approximately 1.2% over five years - total, a 1.2% difference. Similarly, the Brookings Institution projects a reduction in Canadian GDP growth by around 1.15 percentage points due to the tariffs - meaning if Canadian GDP might have otherwise grown by 10% over five years it would only grow by 8.85% if no other changes are made.
Our economic challenge isn’t with Trump or any other country, it’s with ourselves.
"Our strength and our intelligence, our wealth and even our good luck, are things which warm our heart and make us feel a match for life. But deeper than all such things, and able to suffice unto itself without them, is the sense of the amount of effort which we can put forth." said William James over a century ago.
Canada has a large capacity for effort, but it is so much greater than we think it is.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
Controversially maybe, I love America. The world needs America and so does the future. As wild as all this fussing and fighting is south of the border, they are leading the way. The largest, most intense, oldest, and longest-lasting democracy on earth. Its institutions, systems, and constitution have withstood far greater challenges in darker times than the ones playing out in public for all to see today. This is how democracy goes. It's an argument we have with ourselves about the shape of things to come. And that argument - loud and terrible at times - is never settled.
The best thing Canada can do to help America is keep being Canada at its best - a sober friend on a silly Saturday night, a solid second opinion, a quiet minute to think things through, a Sunday morning kitchen conversation with your Dad.
We'll watch America grow and change. And we’ll do what we always do. We'll adopt the best parts as our own. We'll forgive the rest. And in that way, we'll move forward together.