The Future of YouTube is Our Future
YouTube is a cultural parlay pick and a money machine. Why do TV, Film, and Music industries treat it like a side-hustle? Why is the Goog and Wall Street sleeping on this $300 billion plus goldmine?
DISCLOSURE: I own Goog stock - the company that owns YouTube. But if I could Parlay Pick any stock it would be YouTube (more detail below)
YouTube - The Medium is the Message
Marshall McLuhan famously declared that "the medium is the message." If he were alive today, he'd point to YouTube as proof that we still haven’t grasped his lesson. More than just a website or an app, YouTube has become the defining media platform of the 21st century—a sprawling, self-sustaining ecosystem that pays creators more than Netflix and Spotify combined and delivers more hours of content than every TV network on Earth. And yet, Hollywood ignores it, Wall Street undervalues it, and Google treats it like a neglectful parent.
Last year, YouTube quietly paid out upwards of $28 billion*** to video and music creators. That’s more than Netflix spent on content and more than Spotify paid the entire music industry both combined. If YouTube were an independent company, it would be one of the biggest and most valuable media businesses in the world—a $300 billion**** behemoth reshaping entertainment. But because it lives inside Alphabet (Stock ticker Goog), it gets lost in the balance sheets, dismissed as just another ad-driven platform.
McLuhan warned that we fixate too much on content while missing the real transformation happening underneath. YouTube isn't just a place where videos exist—it is the medium itself, shaping what we watch, how we create, and who gets paid. And yet, the industry, the press, and even the stock market still talk about it like it’s a sideshow, not the main event. I still see it described as a “website”.
That’s a mistake. It’s something new in a category without a name. YouTube is the most powerful entertainment and information force of the modern age, and it's still just getting started.
If YouTube Were a Stock, It’d Be the Buy of the Decade—But Alphabet’s Keeping It Locked Up! What the heck is going on?
The Big Picture
There’s is a classic metaphor often attributed to David Foster Wallace, who opened his famous This Is Water speech with a simple but profound anecdote:
Two young fish are swimming along when they meet an older fish, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” The two young fish swim on for a bit, and then one turns to the other and says, “What the hell is water?”
The idea is that the most ubiquitous, essential forces in our lives are often the hardest to see. We don’t question them because they’re simply there, surrounding us, shaping everything we do.
And that’s YouTube.
SHOW ME THE MONEY
YouTube Pays Creators More Than Spotify + Netflix Combined
If YouTube is paying out $25–28 billion annually to creators, that’s equal to or more than the combined payouts of Spotify ($10B) and Netflix ($17B) in their most recent years. Yet, neither industry nor Wall Street gives YouTube the respect it deserves.
Why Isn't YouTube Getting More Love?
It's Stuck in Google's Shadow
As part of Alphabet, YouTube gets lumped in with Google’s massive $300B+ annual revenue, dominated by Search and Cloud.
If YouTube were a standalone company, it would likely be valued above $300B, easily comparable to Netflix (~$250B market cap).
But because it's buried within Google’s financials, it’s treated as just another “ad revenue segment.”
Misconception That YouTube Is Just "User-Generated Content"
Industry insiders still compare YouTube to TikTok or other social media, when in reality, it’s the biggest TV network in the world.
The sheer volume of premium content (documentaries, music, education, podcasts, etc.) is vastly underestimated.
Market Underestimates YouTube’s Growth Potential
There are lots of things wrong with YouTube (more later) but that’s a good thing. It has massive room to grow with just regular everyday business improvments.
YouTube Premium is massively under-monetized: If YouTube increases paid subscribers (like Netflix or Spotify), it could 5x revenue.
YouTube TV & Sports Deals: It now owns NFL Sunday Ticket, eating into cable’s last stronghold—live sports.
YouTube is the Future of Music, Education & Entertainment, yet Wall Street still sees it as "just ad-driven."
Advertisers Don’t Fully Get It Yet
YouTube rivals traditional TV in ad dollars but marketers still throw money at linear TV out of habit.
As ad budgets shift from TV to digital, YouTube is positioned to dominate, but Madison Avenue is slow to adapt.
Creators Complain, But They Have No Better Option
Many YouTubers criticize ad revenue splits, algorithm changes, and demonetization.
But despite complaints, YouTube is the only platform paying billions to independent creators.
No serious alternative exists (TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook don’t pay anywhere close).
It will get better
What’s Wrong Here?
YouTube should be valued like Netflix + Spotify + Twitch combined—but instead, it’s treated as an afterthought.
Wall Street has not caught up to its real economic power.
Ad agencies still spend too much on old-school TV.
Content insiders still don’t take YouTube creators seriously. YouTube creators don’t take themselves seriously.
Alphabet keeps it buried in earnings reports instead of showcasing it as a growth driver.
The Fix?
Alphabet Should Spin Off YouTube
If YouTube were independent, it would be worth $300B+ and could focus on premium content, live sports, and global expansion.
This would force Wall Street to properly value it.
More Push on Premium & Subscriptions
YouTube Music & Premium are undervalued products—they could easily double revenue by growing paid users.
Market Needs to Catch Up
As linear TV collapses, advertisers will be forced to shift billions into YouTube.
MORE IMPROVEMENT SUGGESTIONS LATER
Right now, YouTube is the best content platform on Earth, massively underappreciated by the industry and Wall Street. This will change—but it’s taking way too long.
For years, traditional TV executives, veteran journalists, and established media brands dismissed YouTube as a platform for cat videos and amateur vloggers. But as ad revenue shifts, audience habits transform, and tech monopolies consolidate power, it’s becoming increasingly clear: the future of YouTube is the future of all content.
YouTube Won—Now What?
Streaming was supposed to be the great disruptor, yet the disruptors have been disrupted. Netflix’s dominance is shaky. Disney+ is in crisis mode. Warner Bros. Discovery is slashing budgets. Even Amazon and Apple, once the silent giants of streaming, are cautiously pulling back on their original content bets.
Meanwhile, YouTube? Still growing. Still profitable. Still the primary entertainment source for an entire generation. And its educational and informational side is possibly the greatest change in human learning and access to information since the printing press. Plus, YouTube is outpaying Netflix and the other more lauded platforms—by a lot.
How YouTube Won: The Only Platform That Matters
For years, digital media has been a battlefield where platforms rise and fall, promising innovation but ultimately succumbing to irrelevance or acquisition. Among them, YouTube stands alone. It hasn’t just survived—it has dominated, integrating competitively with legacy TV while maintaining a creator-friendly ecosystem that others failed to replicate.
YouTube’s Long-Form Commitment: The Key to Dominance
Unlike TikTok, Instagram, or Facebook, which focus on short-form bursts of content, YouTube has remained committed to long-form storytelling. This isn’t accidental. Long-form content fosters deeper engagement, builds lasting audience relationships, and provides a more sustainable ad revenue model. YouTube understood something its competitors missed: serious creators and professional producers need space to build, not just go viral.
The Legacy TV Integration Advantage
YouTube is the only digital platform that has successfully merged with traditional TV habits. While TikTok dominates mobile-first content, YouTube spans every screen. It’s on smart TVs, gaming consoles, and set-top boxes, making it as accessible as Netflix or cable television. Unlike Vimeo or other video-sharing sites, YouTube’s seamless integration into household viewing habits makes it the natural evolution of television.
Opportunities TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook Don’t Have
Other platforms have tried, but they remain limited:
TikTok: Hyper-short, algorithm-driven content with little room for deeper storytelling or monetization stability.
Instagram & Facebook: Designed for social engagement rather than content discovery and long-term revenue opportunities.
Vimeo & Others: Lack the scale, algorithm, and revenue-sharing model to compete meaningfully.
YouTube, on the other hand, offers an ecosystem where creators can build sustainable careers, distributors can find audiences, and traditional media can adapt rather than collapse.
A Reasonable Balance of Oversight and Fair Play
One of YouTube’s greatest strengths is its ability to balance corporate oversight with a relatively open playing field for creators. Unlike the unregulated chaos of other platforms or the closed ecosystems of streaming services, YouTube operates with a reasonable mix of content moderation, monetization fairness, and platform support.
This is a stark contrast to:
Facebook’s unpredictable algorithm shifts and pay-to-play model.
TikTok’s opaque revenue-sharing policies and lack of long-term stability.
The walled gardens of Netflix and Disney+, which shut out independent creators altogether.
YouTube has carved out a niche as the best alternative for professional-level producers, distributors, and channels looking for a scalable future beyond the gatekeepers of old media.
I’m at the REALSCREEN Factual Television Market in Miami this week so it’s natural to add this section. Skip it if you aren’t interested in the inside ball of how TV gets made.
The Next Home for Professional Creators
YouTube isn’t just a place for influencers or amateur vloggers anymore. It is the de facto launchpad for independent studios, documentary filmmakers, educators, and investigative journalists. The platform provides:
Consistent monetization through ad revenue, memberships, and direct support.
A global audience with unmatched discoverability.
A business model where creators actually own their audience and content.
If you are a professional producer or distributor looking for a future-proof platform, YouTube isn’t just an option—it’s the only option.
The Future Is Here
Every major shift in media has favored those who embraced new technologies over those who clung to old ones. YouTube has already won the battle for digital video dominance, and the next generation of professional content creators are building their futures there. The question isn’t whether YouTube will replace traditional media—it already has. The only question left is: Are you on board?
More Variety, More Niche, More Fun
Why is YouTube pulling ahead? Simple: it has more variety, better discoverability, stronger algorithms, and more fun. Traditional streaming services function like walled gardens with limited catalogs, rigid algorithms, and expensive licensing deals. YouTube, on the other hand, is an open ecosystem where new shows appear every day, hyper-niche communities thrive, and creativity isn’t throttled by corporate risk aversion of the blockbuster, star-driven megastructure of the Hollywood industrial complex system.
Here’s the brutal reality for TV networks and digital publishers: YouTube isn’t just competing for viewers—it’s eating the old industry’s dead bloated corpse. A 14-year-old today is more likely to recognize MrBeast than any late-night host. Independent creators, with no corporate backing, generate higher engagement than multimillion-dollar studio productions.
Journalists lament the decline of investigative reporting, yet some of the most compelling in-depth content today comes from independent YouTube creators, who don’t answer to shareholders, advertisers, or newsroom bureaucracy.
The eyeball economy doesn’t care about legacy. It cares about information and entertainment. And YouTube delivers.
TV People: This is Your New Reality
Forget network execs, pitch meetings, and development slates. If you’re a TV producer, director, or writer, your future audience is already on YouTube—and they’re consuming content in ways you never imagined. Short-form, long-form, interactive, bingeable, niche-specific, AI-generated—it’s all happening there.
The good news? There’s opportunity here. Creators who once relied on gatekeepers now have direct access to global audiences. A filmmaker today can launch a YouTube channel and fund projects through Patreon, brand partnerships, or subscriptions—without ever taking a studio meeting. You just gotta have the courage of your convictions and learn how to ‘micro-fail’… get it wrong until you get it right without running out of steam.
But it requires a fundamental shift in thinking. If you’re still making TV the way you did in 2010, you’re agonizingly obsolete. If your content strategy revolves around a your passion project, you’re in trouble. The future belongs to those who create consistently, authentically, and independently to find what their audience wants.
Broadcast’s Executive Paralysis
Broadcast is limited by the imagination of executive committees and commissioning execs who are going to lose their jobs, power, and social cred, no matter what they do—so they are all driven by fear, just doing their best to figure out what will get attention. YouTube just knows. The algorithm is agnostic to industry politics, office hierarchies, or risk-averse decision-making. It delivers what audiences actually want, rather than what executives think they should want.
This fundamental difference is why YouTube is surging ahead while legacy networks struggle. The data is immediate, feedback loops are short, and content evolves in real time. Meanwhile, traditional TV is bogged down by corporate inertia, second-guessing, and an outdated notion of what constitutes "good" programming.
Journalists: Adapt or Fade Away
Mainstream journalism is crumbling under economic pressures, but the appetite for serious reporting isn’t gone—it’s just migrated. Long-form breakdowns, documentary investigations, and deep-dive analysis thrive on YouTube, often outperforming legacy news outlets.
Independent journalists like Tim Pool, Breaking Points, or real-time war reporters have built audiences that rival major networks. Why? Trust. Authenticity. Direct access. People would rather hear analysis from a knowledgeable, unfiltered source than a polished, network-approved anchor reading a teleprompter.
For journalists who want to stay relevant, YouTube is your newsroom now. The business model is different, the pace is relentless, but the rewards are there for those willing to embrace it.
The Death of “New” and the Rise of “Next”
For decades, TV networks and publishers built their business on the illusion of new. New seasons, new pilots, new issues, new front pages. But YouTube operates on a different principle: next.
There’s no off-season. No pilot cycle. No quarterly newsstand sales. Just constant, relentless, algorithm-driven content. The old media model isn’t just failing—it’s becoming irrelevant.
Creators who understand this—who treat YouTube as a platform rather than a distribution channel—are already winning. The future isn’t about trying to get into the industry. It’s about building your own industry.
What Happens Now?
Lessons from the Music Industry
The music industry has always been a generation ahead of television in disruption. Napster, iTunes, and Spotify reshaped how music is consumed, forcing artists to pivot to direct fan engagement, live experiences, and alternative revenue streams. The lesson? Creators must own their audience, build sustainable ecosystems, and embrace new models before the industry forces them to.
What Can Broadcast Learn?
Broadcast media can take a page from YouTube by embracing algorithm-driven programming, audience interaction, and decentralized content creation. Instead of doubling down on rigid commissioning models, traditional networks need to incorporate direct creator relationships, experiment with micro-content, and optimize for discoverability.
For Creators and Producers
How do you get started when there’s no capital, no time, and no system like broadcast support? By embracing failure. The most successful YouTubers iterate constantly, test content in real time, and evolve based on feedback. Unlike traditional TV, which spends years refining concepts, YouTube creators refine in weeks or days. IT starts with a Minimum Viable Product. A prototype in effect, that goes to market. Or better yet two prototypes that are A/B tests in an endless chain of improvment.
And in Government?
Governments still prop up old media models with CBC, Telefilm, CMF, and tax credits, yet there are no equivalent systems for YouTube creators. Why are outdated funding mechanisms supporting legacy broadcasters while the fastest-growing content ecosystem is ignored? If Canada wants to remain competitive, policies must shift toward supporting digital creators, adapting tax incentives, and recognizing YouTube as a legitimate industry.
The Bottom Line
If you’re in TV, journalism, publishing, or any form of storytelling, the question isn’t whether YouTube is the future. It’s whether you have a future without YouTube.
This isn’t a warning—it’s an invitation. To rethink, reinvent, and reclaim creative control.
The audience is there. The tools are there. The barriers are gone.
The only thing stopping you is the idea that things will go back to the way they were.
They won’t.
And that’s good news for those willing to embrace what comes next.
Because the future of YouTube?
It’s our future too.
So what’s holding us back?
OK, back to our story…
There are some problems with YouTube…
YouTube’s Algorithm Dictates, Not Democratises
While YouTube offers vast discoverability, it is still an opaque, algorithm-driven system controlled by a single corporation. Unlike traditional TV, which has human programmers and editorial judgment, YouTube’s algorithm prioritizes engagement above all else. This can lead to:
Sensationalism over substance: Outrage, clickbait, and controversy often outperform nuanced, high-quality storytelling.
Echo chambers and misinformation: The recommendation engine tends to reinforce existing biases rather than broadening perspectives.
Platform dependency: Creators have no real control over their distribution. If YouTube tweaks the algorithm tomorrow, entire careers can collapse overnight.
For critics, this isn’t a liberating future—it’s a digital landlord economy where creators live at the mercy of an AI overlord.
The Money Isn’t as Good as It Looks
Yes, we pointed out that YouTube is outpaying Netflix—but that money is spread across millions of creators, not concentrated into high-budget productions. Unlike traditional TV, where a single commission could fund a season of a show (in the old days), YouTube creators often rely on a patchwork of ad revenue, sponsorships, Patreon, and merch sales just to make a living. It’s complex and work that’s never done. And by all accounts, from folks like Derek Muller, a physicist, educator, and filmmaker who is best known for his YouTube channel, Veritasium (Subscribers: 17.2 million, Total Views: Approximately 3.07 billion, Total Videos: 426), it’s frigin’ exhausting work that is not easily delegated in the typical current model.
Lower per-unit payouts: A hit show on TV still commands bigger financial guarantees than a viral video.
No middle-class of creators: The top 1% of YouTubers make millions, but many struggle to sustain themselves.
Race to the bottom: Because of intense competition and zero barriers to entry, the financial rewards for any single creator can be highly unpredictable.
Critics argue that, unlike broadcast, which at least offers stable jobs and industry structures, YouTube forces everyone into a gig economy of constant content churn with little long-term security.
YouTube’s “TV Integration” Isn’t a Total Victory
While YouTube is the only platform that has successfully integrated with legacy TV (via smart TVs, cable bundles, and the YouTube app on every device), there are still barriers to full mainstream adoption.
Perceived as amateurish: Many audiences still view YouTube as a place for vloggers, not premium storytelling.
Advertiser bias: Big brands still prefer the controlled environment of network TV, where their ads won’t appear next to controversial content.
Long-form content struggles to compete: While YouTube supports long-form, its core strength is short-form and algorithm-driven binge sessions. Traditional TV thrives on predictable schedules and serialized storytelling, which YouTube hasn't fully replicated.
Short and unpredictable form content irritates Netflix and Chill and traditional TV viewers who just want to relax and watch for ta couple hours rather than hunt for stuff every ten minutes.
Skeptics argue that YouTube is an additive medium, not a replacement. It might kill cable, but it won’t eliminate traditional production structures.
Government and Regulation Are Inevitable
Right now, YouTube benefits from a lack of serious regulation compared to broadcast. But governments around the world are catching up.
Copyright law enforcement: Stricter rules on content ownership could curtail remix culture and demonetize thousands of creators.
Taxation and funding restructuring: Governments could start demanding YouTube contribute to public media funds (like Netflix has been forced to do in Canada).
Content moderation pressure: Political pushback could lead to greater censorship and demonetization, forcing YouTube to act more like traditional TV.
Once regulation catches up, YouTube may find itself stuck with the same bureaucratic challenges that slowed down legacy media.
Quality and Creativity Still Need Gatekeepers
Many industry veterans would argue that YouTube’s open-access nature doesn’t necessarily lead to better content. In traditional media, development executives, showrunners, and networks serve as filters to ensure that only high-quality, audience-worthy projects get made.
Without these structures:
Quantity trumps quality: The most-watched YouTube videos aren’t necessarily the best-produced ones.
Lack of industry support for new voices: In TV, a great creator with no audience can still get funding. On YouTube, they have to grind for years before they break through.
No protection from market forces: YouTube’s revenue model favors what’s popular, not what’s important. Serious journalism, experimental storytelling, and niche cultural content all struggle to survive.
In this view, YouTube isn’t the future of storytelling—it’s just a massive content free-for-all. And while that’s great for entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily lead to meaningful, high-impact media.
Final Counterpoint: YouTube Still Needs TV’s Ecosystem
For all its strengths, YouTube still relies on traditional media.
Legacy TV still produces much of the content that gets re-uploaded and analyzed.
Journalists still report stories that YouTube creators comment on.
Hollywood still creates the cultural moments that drive discussion on YouTube.
In other words, YouTube is in a fundamental way parasitic to traditional media. If legacy media collapses, will YouTube still thrive, or will it simply devolve into an ocean of AI-generated junk?
Conclusion: YouTube is the Future… But Not the Only Future
The strongest counterargument to YouTube as the future of media is that while it’s an incredibly powerful platform, it is not a total replacement for TV, journalism, or high-end storytelling.
Yes, YouTube won the attention economy. Yes, it is the dominant force in video today. But does that mean traditional media is dead? Or just that it needs to evolve?
The reality might be a hybrid future—where YouTube continues to grow, but professional creators, journalists, and networks find new ways to exist alongside it, rather than inside it.
Who and What Will It Take to Fix YouTube?
If YouTube is the future, but its ecosystem is still flawed, what will it take to build a media world that actually works—for creators, audiences, and industry professionals? Here’s what needs to happen, and who needs to make it happen.
The Creator Revolution Needs Infrastructure
The biggest gap in the YouTube economy isn’t talent—it’s support systems. Unlike traditional media, where producers, editors, marketers, and funding structures exist to help projects succeed, most YouTubers are left to fend for themselves. This limits the growth of serious, high-quality content.
Who can fix this?
Independent Studios for YouTubers – We need production companies that specialize in YouTube content, helping creators produce high-end work at scale. Think of how music labels help musicians—YouTube needs the same for video.
YouTube-Centric Agencies – Just as Hollywood has CAA, WME, and UTA to broker deals, YouTubers need real industry representation to negotiate brand deals, distribution rights, and long-term career strategies.
More Collaboration Hubs – YouTube thrives on creator crossovers (think MrBeast or Logan Paul’s networks), but most creators don’t have access to shared studios, editors, and managers. We need more YouTube-first production spaces.
The Fix?
Build Netflix-quality production teams that work inside the YouTube model instead of outside it.
Fund media incubators for digital creators, teaching storytelling, branding, and business strategy.
Traditional Media Needs to Stop Fighting and Start Learning
Legacy TV isn’t dying—it’s killing itself by resisting the inevitable. Instead of treating YouTube as the enemy, broadcasters, and networks should embrace the platform and its model.
Who can fix this?
Broadcast Networks – They need to stop clinging to outdated formats and shift toward a YouTube-first approach. Traditional media still makes the best scripted content—but they need to abandon their rigid production cycles and embrace the always-on, fan-driven content style of YouTube.
Journalists & News Organizations – Traditional journalism must become native to YouTube, not just post clips. YouTube thrives on personality-driven news. Where are the Walter Cronkites of YouTube?
The Fix?
Networks should invest in YouTube-native talent instead of trying to force TV content onto the platform.
News organizations should build YouTube-first reporting teams with real investigative depth.
Government Needs to Rethink Media Support
Public funding for media is still stuck in a 1990s mindset. Governments fund broadcast, legacy studios, and public media while ignoring the fastest-growing digital platforms. That has to change.
Who can fix this?
Telefilm, CBC, CMF, NFB, Corp Funds, Arts Councils, & Public Provincial Funds – These agencies should fund YouTube creators the same way they fund indie filmmakers. There’s no reason a professional YouTuber creating groundbreaking documentaries shouldn’t get the same funding opportunities as a traditional doc filmmaker.
Regulators & Policymakers – Governments should create tax credits, grants, and incentives for YouTube-based production companies—just like they do for TV and film. Or simply expand the regulations on existing systems.
The Fix?
Level the playing field. If legacy media gets tax credits, YouTubers should too.
Rethink public media. Instead of spending billions on CBC or BBC, invest in digital-first journalism initiatives.
YouTube Itself Needs to Step Up
YouTube built the system, but it still doesn’t fully support creators in a way that builds long-term stability. It needs to evolve beyond just ad revenue. And it has to have at least a couple of rungs in its ladder between the amateurs and the pro leagues. People need that. Even at the entry-level.
Who can fix this?
YouTube Leadership & Alphabet (Google’s Parent Company) – They need to invest more in creator stability—better revenue sharing, better transparency on algorithms, and more support for serious, high-quality content.
YouTube Alternatives – If YouTube won’t fix itself, competitors like Rumble, Nebula, or Patreon-backed networks need to push for a more creator-friendly economy.
The Fix?
Revise the revenue split. YouTube keeps 45% of ad revenue—why not 30%?
Offer direct creator funding. YouTube should fund long-term projects, not just reward short-term clicks.
Create a licensing system. Let creators negotiate better deals for syndication and reuse of their content.
Creators Themselves Need a Mindset Shift
Many YouTubers are still stuck in the solo-grind mentality. But YouTube is too big now for that. The most successful YouTubers already act like studios.
Who can fix this?
Creators & Indie Producers – The next wave of YouTubers will be teams, not individuals. Just like musicians needed record labels, YouTubers need support networks.
Industry Veterans Who Adapt – Old-school TV people shouldn’t run from YouTube—they should bring their storytelling skills to the platform.
The Fix?
Think bigger. Creators should build brands, not just channels.
Invest in teams. Editors, researchers, and producers make YouTube content better and more sustainable.
Stop treating YouTube as just a stepping stone. It’s a real business. Treat it like one.
Final Thought: The Future is Hybrid
The fix isn’t about killing TV or making every creator a YouTuber. The real future is a hybrid model where traditional storytelling merges with digital-first platforms.
TV producers need to think like YouTubers.
YouTubers need to act like production companies.
Governments need to fund content, not platforms.
And YouTube itself needs to embrace its role as the new Hollywood.
If all these players move in the right direction, we won’t just fix YouTube’s flaws—we’ll create the best media ecosystem we’ve ever had.
*** We can estimate what portion of YouTube's revenue is paid out to creators each year using a few key data points:
YouTube’s Total Annual Revenue:
YouTube’s reported revenue for 2023 was $40.7 billion (source: Alphabet’s earnings report).
This was a 12.5% increase from 2022, suggesting further growth in 2024.
Revenue Share Model:
YouTube’s Partner Program (YPP) pays 55% of ad revenue to video creators.
YouTube Shorts creators receive 45% of ad revenue after YouTube takes a cut.
Estimating Creator Payouts:
If we assume 55% of total YouTube ad revenue goes to creators:
2023 YouTube Ad Revenue: ~$40.7 billion
Estimated Creator Payouts: $22.4 billion
YouTube Music's $6 billion payout in 2022 (reported by YouTube) suggests music creators get a much smaller slice than video creators. We can assume at least 5% growth per year since then.
YOUTUBE
Total combined payouts… conservatively, $25-$30 billion in 2024 and growing.
**** The $300 billion valuation estimate for YouTube is based on a few different valuation models commonly used for media and tech companies. Here’s how I got there:
1. Comparable Market Valuations
We can compare YouTube to other publicly traded streaming and media companies with similar revenue and business models.
2. Standalone Profitability Estimate
Google doesn’t break out YouTube’s exact profits, but analysts estimate YouTube has an operating margin of 25-30%.
That would mean $40.7B in revenue → $10-12B in estimated profits.
If we apply a 30x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (similar to tech/media peers), YouTube’s valuation lands around $300B–$360B.
3. Growth & Future Potential
YouTube’s revenue grew 12.5% in 2023, faster than Netflix or Spotify.
YouTube Premium & YouTube TV are under-monetized, meaning it has massive future revenue potential.
AI, live sports, podcasting, and creator monetization give YouTube more room to expand beyond ad revenue.
Bottom Line
A reasonable standalone valuation for YouTube today would be between $250B and $350B, on par with Netflix. But because it’s buried within Google’s financials, Wall Street isn’t properly valuing it as a media giant—which is why spinning it off could unlock enormous value.
Interesting piece… I previously used it purely as a spot to park videos that I didn’t want to manage and store in any other way at home. Last July I started posting some vlogs, and things just took off. Today I have over 13K subscribers and I’m making $500-1000 per month. More importantly, I’ve created a little community from people all over the world. My channel is all empathy based, real and heartfelt material and it’s so gratifying to know that there’s an audience for that. It’s an amazing medium… It’s so easy and accessible. For me it feels more like social media than a video sharing platform. You are right about the future of YouTube.