Canada’s Film Future: Boom or Bust
If the U.S. Slaps a 25% Tariff on Canadian Film, What Happens Next?
As a favourite filming location for Tinseltown's big-budget productions, Canada has always been ready for its close-up—even when it's doubling for somewhere else! But what happens if there is suddenly a 25% tax on Canadian service production?
Ten Famous American Movies Actually Filmed in Canada
Introduction: A Crossroads for Canada’s Cultural Industries
Canada’s film and television industry, long a darling of global production hubs, is facing an existential question. As political winds in the United States blow toward protectionism, rumors swirl of a potential 25% tariff on Canadian goods. While cultural industries historically benefit from exemptions under trade agreements, the uncertainty surrounding a broader tariff regime—and the mere perception of heightened business risk—threatens to reshape the industry.
Two futures stand before Canada: one where cultural industries remain insulated from economic turbulence, and another where American-driven service productions vanish, leaving a void in soundstages from Vancouver to Halifax. Either scenario forces a reckoning with the deeper, long-avoided question: What does a truly independent Canadian film and television industry look like in the 21st century?
Scenario 1: Cultural Exemptions Hold—For Now
For decades, cultural industries in Canada have enjoyed a special status under trade agreements like NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA. This protection reflects Canada’s desire to preserve its distinct cultural identity while benefiting from cross-border economic integration.
Under this scenario, the immediate impact of U.S. tariffs would be muted. Hollywood blockbusters and prestige TV shows would continue to shoot in Canada, drawn by competitive tax credits, skilled crews, and the weak Canadian dollar. Provinces like British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec—cornerstones of the $10 billion-a-year industry—would hum along with little disruption.
But even with exemptions, cracks are appearing in this model:
Overreliance on American Content: A significant portion of Canadian production capacity serves U.S. studios. While lucrative, these partnerships often leave Canadian creatives sidelined, with little ownership of intellectual property (IP).
Limited Domestic Growth: Local stories struggle to compete for funding and attention in a system geared toward foreign projects.
The Streaming Shift: As platforms like Netflix and Disney+ consolidate operations, they increasingly produce in-house, reducing demand for outsourced Canadian production services.
While cultural exemptions might stave off disaster, they do nothing to address Canada’s deeper cultural and economic vulnerabilities.
Scenario 2: The Service Industry Vanishes
If the U.S. imposes tariffs on Canadian cultural industries—or if American studios perceive the risk as too high—the results would be devastating in the short term. The service-based model that sustains much of the industry would collapse, leaving thousands of Canadian crew members, technicians, and administrators without work.
The ripple effects would be profound:
Lost Economic Output: Provinces reliant on U.S. productions could see billions evaporate overnight.
Brain Drain: Canadian talent, already prone to heading south, would have fewer reasons to stay. Writers, directors, and actors might leave in droves, further hollowing out the creative core.
Disrupted Ecosystems: Entire sectors—post-production, special effects, catering—would suffer as the pipeline of U.S. projects dries up.
Yet, amid the wreckage, there lies opportunity.
A Third Path: Building a Truly Canadian Industry
Both scenarios underscore a harsh reality: Canada’s reliance on foreign productions has stunted its ability to cultivate a robust, self-sustaining film and television industry. For decades, Canadian creators have been caught in a paradox, celebrated for their technical expertise yet dependent on foreign studios for work. The solution? Shift the focus to fostering Canadian IP ownership and talent development.
Investing in Canadian Stories
Canada has no shortage of compelling stories to tell. From Hope for Wildlife to the Trailer Park Boys, the country offers a wealth of narratives that resonate both domestically and globally. Increased investment in these stories could:
Strengthen national identity.
Create exportable cultural products akin to South Korea’s global media dominance.
Reduce reliance on foreign financing.
Investing in Commercially Viable Stories and Platforms
For years, the money and focus have gone toward Canadian films that are more probing, earnest, and "arty."
The average consumer may not want to see that on a Friday night when they come home from a busy week. So we're going to have to make a bit more effort to be entertaining.
For too long, Canada’s film and TV industry has prioritized ideological goals over commercial viability. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives have dominated funding criteria, often ahead of the most critical questions: Is it good? Do people want to watch it? Does it make money? While representation and inclusion matter, the primary mission of the entertainment industry is to entertain, inform, and delight—not to lecture.
The success of American service productions has inadvertently enabled the rise of a social-justice-driven arts culture that has commandeered much of Canada’s public funding. The result? A glut of well-meaning but largely unwatchable content that fails to attract audiences or deliver returns. Canadian taxpayers are footing the bill for productions that audiences—both domestic and international—are increasingly rejecting.
Film and TV are businesses rooted in popular entertainment. Successful productions, whether comedy, drama, or documentary, resonate because they connect with audiences on a fundamental, emotional level. They don’t succeed by endlessly reiterating the same social justice messages or by prioritizing agendas over storytelling. It’s time for Canada to realign its cultural funding and creative priorities toward stories that sell, entertain, and engage.
Refocusing on Audience-Centric Content
The industry must embrace stories that audiences actively want to consume—narratives that entertain, inform, and captivate, not preach. This means investing in:
Relatable Characters and Compelling Stories: Whether it’s a local tale or a universal theme, content should first and foremost be engaging.
Proven Formats: Leaning into genres that perform well globally—crime thrillers, romantic comedies, documentaries, and sci-fi—can elevate Canada’s market position.
High-Impact Platforms: Canadian creators should aim to dominate on platforms where audiences already are: YouTube, TikTok, streaming services, and even niche OTT platforms that cater to targeted demographics.
Creating an Ecosystem for Commercial Success
To foster commercially viable content, Canada must incentivize projects that prioritize audience demand and financial sustainability:
Funding Linked to Performance: Public arts funding could include mechanisms to reward viewership, ratings, and profitability, ensuring taxpayer dollars are spent on projects that resonate.
Market-Driven Partnerships: Collaborating with international distributors and broadcasters ensures that Canadian content meets global standards while retaining its unique voice.
Support for Emerging Platforms: Social media creators, online series, and digital-first projects should receive as much attention as traditional film and TV, recognizing their role in shaping modern entertainment.
Why It Matters Now
The current model of prioritizing ideology over quality has alienated audiences and created a cultural vacuum where Canadian content often feels disconnected from its viewers. In contrast, Canadian YouTubers and social media personalities are thriving by doing exactly what legacy arts funding overlooks: delivering what people want to watch.
It’s time to get back to the basics of the entertainment business: telling great stories, entertaining audiences, and ensuring Canada’s creative industries can compete in a global marketplace. By focusing on commercial viability and audience appeal, Canada can reclaim its cultural space—not as a footnote to Hollywood, but as a global powerhouse in its own right.
Supporting Talent and IP
Ownership is everything in the modern media landscape. By prioritizing funding for projects that keep creative control within Canada, the government and private sector could ensure long-term returns. Models to consider include:
Tax Incentives for IP Retention: Reward productions that retain Canadian ownership of rights and revenues.
Public-Private Partnerships: Encourage collaboration between Canadian broadcasters, private investors, and international distributors to co-finance projects with Canadian control.
The Rise of Digital Creators
At the same time, Canada’s future may be less tied to traditional film and television and more to digital platforms. Canadian YouTubers, TikTokers, and streamers are emerging as cultural powerhouses, commanding millions of followers and rivaling legacy broadcasters in reach. Unlike traditional productions, these creators often retain full control of their IP, revenue streams, and brand identities.
Investing in digital creators through grants, mentorship programs, and partnerships could establish Canada as a global leader in the creator economy.
Leveraging Technological Innovation
Canada has long excelled in fields like special effects, animation, and VR/AR technology. A pivot toward innovation-driven storytelling could position the country as a hub for next-generation content.
The Bottom Line: Boom or Bust?
Canada’s film and television industry stands at a transformative moment. Whether cultural exemptions remain or the service model collapses, the current path is unsustainable. The allure of serving Hollywood has masked a glaring gap: a lack of investment in Canadian talent, IP, and stories.
By embracing independence—both in traditional media and the burgeoning creator economy—Canada could secure a cultural and economic renaissance. In the words of media theorist Marshall McLuhan, “We shape our tools, and thereafter our tools shape us.” The time has come for Canada to shape its own destiny in film and television. Whether it chooses to seize this opportunity or cling to the comfort of a service-based model will define its cultural legacy for decades to come.
Where are we in the market?
Last year, the Canadian Screen Awards doled out some of its top trophies. BlackBerry was the top winner, with 11 awards in a week-long ceremony honouring film, television and almost everything else we watch on our screens.
But perhaps more than anyone else, Canadian filmmakers are learning that not everything that glitters is gold. Because despite success at Cannes — and a few unforgettable notes at the Oscars — Canadian films and filmmakers still make up a small sliver of the box office, and a dismal ripple in a sea of streaming platforms.
In 2023, Canadian films made up just three per cent of the Canadian box office, largely supported by the outsized successes of BlackBerry and the country's new cultural behemoth, Paw Patrol. We don’t even move the needle internationally in spite of the billions invested from the top of the CBC down to the local film festivals.
It all paints a dismal picture for the health of the Canadian film industry.
The Existential Crisis of Canadian Television
Canada’s TV industry is at a crossroads, as Bell, Rogers, CBC, and Corus struggle to adapt to a rapidly changing media landscape. Once cultural cornerstones, these giants now face declining viewership, lost trust, and an identity crisis rooted in fear, changing business models, and outdated strategies where the thing they are investing in least is the thing Canadian and global audiences want most - something new and interesting to watch.
Bell and Rogers focused on scale and consolidation, acquiring channels and platforms to control content end-to-end. But in an age of streaming abundance, this scarcity mindset is failing. Burdened by debt and aging infrastructure, they’ve neglected creativity and original programming—losing ground to global giants like Netflix and Disney+.
Corus, once dominant in lifestyle programming, has also faltered. Younger audiences crave authenticity and interactivity, but Corus remains tethered to fading formats and stars.
Meanwhile, the CBC, intended to serve as a cultural and educational cornerstone, has skewed toward niche social political missions completely untethered from entertaining or informing audiences. CBC feels increasingly adrift. The ideological messaging alienates viewers, neglecting the unifying storytelling it was meant to champion.
These failures reflect a broader industry trapped in legacy thinking, not clinging to cable models and regulatory protections but paralyzed by fear and ignoring digital realities. Producers like Vertasium and What if… on platforms like YouTube and TikTok thrive by embracing new formats and global audiences, leaving Canadian broadcasters looking slow and stale.
The stakes are high. If these companies fail to prioritize creativity and innovation, Canadian storytelling and industry risks being overshadowed or lost entirely. But with bold investment in original content and a willingness to embrace change, they can still reclaim their place in the cultural landscape—before it’s too late.
Dickens was a social reformer who as a child spent time in a debtor's prison after his father fell on hard times. He also aimed to entertain and capture an audience. The two goals are not incompatible. But you gotta entertain...